435,000 DWP State Pensioners set to miss 2026 pension rise as 'not eligible'

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates that the annual State Pension increase is likely to be determined by earnings growth, currently standing at 4.7 per cent (including bonuses), while the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is at 3.8 per cent.

Under the Triple Lock mechanism, State Pensions rise each year in line with whichever is the highest of average annual earnings growth from May to July, CPI in the year to September or 2.5 per cent. The September CPI will be announced on 22 October.

However, while millions of pensioners across the UK can look forward to a payment increase in April next year, nearly half a million people of State Pension age will not be eligible for the rise. It's estimated that 453,000 pensioners live in a country that doesn't have a reciprocal agreement with the government, meaning they won't receive the annual State Pension increase, despite having made the necessary National Insurance Contributions to qualify for the state Pension.

The 'End Frozen Pensions' campaign has been vigorously campaigning on this issue, with thousands of supporters signing an online petition, a visit to Parliament by 100 year old Second World War veteran Anne Puckridge, and ongoing appeals to the UK Government to reconsider the policy. Many expats are receiving a significantly smaller State Pension than those living in Scotland, England, Wales or Northern Ireland, according to the Daily Record.

Campaigners had high hopes that the appointment of former Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, as Canadian Prime Minister earlier this year, would kick-start talks with the UK Government over an issue impacting more than 100,000 expats living in Canada. The State Pension is frozen at the point of emigration for individuals mainly residing in Commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia.

However, pensioners living in the USA or EU countries are entitled to the same considerations regarding their State Pension as if they had stayed in the UK. A significant chunk of the affected pensioners (49%) receive £65 per week or less, with a staggering 86 per cent of all expats not being told that their State Pension would be frozen.

Campaigners have pointed out that some pensioners receive as little as £20.00 a week. More details about the End Frozen Pensions Campaign can be found on their website.

The New and Basic State Pension saw a rise of 4.7 per cent in April, meaning someone on the full New State Pension now receives £230.25 per week, or £921 every four-week pay period. Those on the full Basic State Pension receive £176.45 each week, or £705.80 every four-week pay period.

Predictions for the State Pension uprating for 2026/27

The Triple Lock is currently set to be determined by the earnings growth element of 4.7 per cent (including bonuses). The CPI for September will be published on October 22 and is forecasted to be 4 per cent.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to confirm the annual uprating at the Autumn Budget on 26 November. A 4.7 per cent increase on the current State Pension would result in recipients receiving the following amounts:

Full New State Pension

• Weekly: £241.05 (from £230.25)
• Four-weekly pay period: £964.20
• Annual amount: £12,534

Full Basic State Pension

• Weekly: £184.75 (from £176.45)
• Four-weekly pay period: £739
• Annual amount: £9,607