Early days, but Dalai Lama succession potential friction point in Sino-Indian ties

The 14th Dalai Lama’s announcement of a succession plan, ruling out any Chinese role in the matter, set off a firestorm with the Chinese ambassador to India, Xu Feihong , saying in a detailed response that the reincarnation must comply with “religious rituals and historical conventions as well as Chinese laws and regulations”.

While it’s still early days, the contentious issue of finding a successor for the revered spiritual leader upon his death can also potentially lead to another flashpoint in India’s relationship with China that has shown several signs of improvement in the past 9 months.

Beijing is likely to choose its own successor to the Dalai Lama and will closely follow how India, home to the Tibetan government-in-exile , reacts to the likely dual succession. The Beijing-based China Tibetology Research Center , which is responsible for shaping China’s Tibet policy, warned in 2019 that bilateral ties would be adversely impacted if India chose to disregard the appointment of Dalai Lama through the “traditional” process. Unlike the US though, India has not spoken officially on the succession issue and it’s unlikely it will be in any hurry to do so now.

The Center told a visiting Indian media delegation, which included this reporter, that no wise leader or friendly country would do that but also remarked that India can stay away or not publicly endorse the Chinese pick. For China, the Dalai Lama succession is an internal process that has been followed since 1792, when the Qing dynasty apparently introduced it.

The Dalai Lama, however, has said in the past that his successor could come from his followers in India and that a Communist China, which rejects religion, should have no role in such religious affairs.

Apart from identifying the next Dalai Lama in China, Beijing lists drawing of lots from a golden urn and recognition of the central government as essential elements of finding a successor, saying the current Dalai Lama was himself chosen through the same process.

For India, the Dalai Lama remains a spiritual figure - deeply respected even by the Indian people - who has not been allowed to conduct political activities on Indian soil. Beijing, however, has often attributed motives to his spiritual and religious actions and the fact that he has been allowed to visit Arunachal Pradesh that is claimed by China. It was perhaps not a coincidence that the 73-day India-China Doklam military standoff at Doklam in 2017 took place barely a couple of months after the Dalai Lama’s visit to the Indian state.

In 2011, the Dalai Lama transferred his political authority to the Tibetan government-in-exile that’s based in India. India has been silent on the succession issue, which will likely be a long-drawn process, unlike the US which maintains that reincarnation is a religious issue with no role for any State in it. While Beijing sees the reincarnation as a matter of Chinese sovereignty, the US believes it’s about religious freedom and human rights and threated to raise the US at the UN in 2019.

In his announcement, the Dalai Lama said that only his Trust and "no one else” has any role to play on the succession issue. Xu said in his response that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, the Panchen Erdeni and other grand Living Buddhas must go through the Golden Urn lottery procedure, and selected candidates would be subject to approval by the central government of China.

“The practice of Living Buddha reincarnation has continued over 700 years, and has formed rigorous religious rituals and historical conventions,” he said.